The Sixth Extinction
by Dave Cohen
Hope is the thing with feathers
That perches in the soul,
And sings the tune–without the words,
And never stops at all
— Emily Dickinson
Hope is a duty from which paleontologists are exempt…. If hope is the thing with feathers, as Emily Dickinson said, then it’s good to remember that feathers don’t generally fossilize well. In lieu of hope and despair, paleontologists have a highly developed sense of cyclicity. That’s why I recently went to Chicago, with a handful of urgently grim questions, and called on a paleontologist named David Jablonski. I wanted answers unvarnished with obligatory hope.
— David Quammen
Occasionally I am asked what I think the future will look like, not just in the next few years or in 10 years, but several decades from now. Frankly, it’s hard not to cringe, because my honest appraisal is not likely to be met with much enthusiasm. Some people harangue me via e-mail, asking why I don’t write about over-population and other great disasters. Well, I write for the association for the study of peak oil & natural gas, so I usually confine myself to energy supply & consumption, alternatives to fossil fuels, and economic or scientific issues that bear on these subjects.
I’ve been accused of being ignorant of, or not caring about, the Big Planetary Issues. Today I depart from my usual stuff, not just to answer a few critics, but more importantly to put our current energy & economic problems in proper perspective.
If the 20th century was a time of expansion and growth for human population and economies, the 21st century will surely usher in a peak and decline in both. Today I talk about my “favorite” disaster, called The Sixth Extinction. Even in the age of politically correct environmentalism, most people could care less about the Earth’s plant & animal species unless their decline bears directly and immediately on their own welfare. Accordingly, I will talk about some clear-cut examples where the health of the natural world adversely affects our future survival...
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