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To: Real Man who wrote (391567)8/2/2009 11:41:29 PM
From: gregor_us1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
What I'd like to hear is a take on the basic SPX level that would need to be reached, combined with the unemployment backdrop, that would send the signal to the smart money that a problematic asset inflation was fully underway. For example, I think its possible that we will see 15% unemployment in California, and 100 dollar oil. If that were to happen, I think the public would "get it."

So my question is about the SPX. I want some call on what SPX level combined with some unemployment level that will send out the message loud and clear that a paper event has started.

I've give you my take: I think we would need to actually make a new high in the SPX with the current rate of unemployment, for people to "get it." Gold and Silver will have moved long before then. Also, I could revise that SPX level down if the USD was plumbing new lows.

My point is as follows: there is going to be a very positive story that will attend a weak USD, higher SPX and still terrible housing and unemployment all the way up the SPX ladder. There will be much talk about Exports, inventories getting sold, and the "coming hiring boom." That storyline will carry on until it hits a wall.

I want a sense of where that wall is.

G

PS: NYMEX back over 70 as I type. Brent at 72.50: I lean towards the idea that the signal comes not in the SPX but in oil, gold, and forex first.
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