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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (8407)	10/29/1997 12:39:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Iqbal, it strikes me that you are being a bit defensive about my posting to you. Please go back and look at what you posted to Bonnie--it had less to do with the ability to exits puts and more to do with yesterday's price action in the US and overseas -- which you felt represented a turn-around. All I was saying was that one day's price action does not decide a market. Now you said the very same thing to people on this thread when the market was declining from the 8000 level--and you were absolutely right. One day's action does not tell the story whether going up or going down. In a posting to me you said that I should be called "Tom the Inquisitior" as opposed to "Tom Trader". Quite frankly it is less to do with my being an inquisitor and more to do with my natural inclination to challenge assumptions and conclusions to determine what it is based on--whether market-related or not. I do this often to myself--in an introspective manner. Many people post on SI without any real basis for what their conclusions. One of the reasons that I follow your postings carefully, is that you are generally very logical and support your conclusions. Once in while I disagree with you like in the case of INTC. At other times I agree with you as in the case of the real impact on the profitability of US companies, of the problems in the ASEAN countries. >>I assure you that in a falling market is not about buying puts at the right time but also exiting at the right time and in my opinion that remains the only criterion<< Iqbal--whether in a rising market or a falling market or a stagnant market--the name of the game is optimal entry and exit out of positions. Makes no difference whether it is Bonnie exiting her puts or YOU AND I entering TXN on the long side and then seeing the stock slide 30% from its highs. Mohan posted to you yesterday evening that one cannot ignore the fact that most countries in SE Asia -- and Japan, Australia and New Zealand --made new lows for the year. This sort of price action is not a freak event. Like I said to you in my last posting -- given that you are a believer in letting the market tell us what to do and what positions to take---what is the US market telling us that we should do at this juncture. We saw a very sharp decline and then a strong rally yesterday. Do you interpret this as being the end of the decline or do you feel that it is too early to say? I am looking to assume long positions but am waiting for things to stabilize. I am not an "in and out trader" and when I trade, I prefer to take positions for the the medium term. Any guidance that you can offer would be appreciated.

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