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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs
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To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (36184)8/4/2009 4:52:33 PM
From: TimF1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 71588
 
If it can be put in to math, than its quantified, but that doesn't necessarily mean its accurate. Complex mathematical models showing X, doesn't necessarily mean X will actually happen.

At least with taxes with have theories and data to suggest certain models where we can then plug in estimates and get some sort of result. Different estimates, and different varients of the methods produce different results, so none of the dynamic scoring could be considered really solid. OTOH in a sense using static scoring here is just a special case of dynamic scoring where you plug in zeros for the reaction to incentives, you assume people will make no change in their investments or other actions even with major changes in the tax rates and tax law. That's obviously false, so however imperfect dynamic scoring is (and its very imperfect) some attempt at it makes sense.

But in the health care reform area we don't really even have the models to do a dynamic scoring.

Its not like taxes where even if we don't know exactly how big the reaction will be we pretty much know the direction (increase taxes by X% and revenue increases X% - Y%, we just disagree a lot about how big Y is); with health care insurance reform even the direction is guesswork.
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