Big Dog's Boom Boom Room Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (123052)	8/6/2009 8:57:35 AM
From: Big Dog	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 206084

Well...so much for that after-market thingy. LOL I'm just trading OIH puts/calls these days. Intraday, or over 1-3 days max. Summer will be over soon...all the Norwegians will be back at their desk and we can start to see deals poppin. Keep an eye on the dozens of rigs still under construction that have back-loaded payment schemes (like 50% due at delivery). Where will some of the folks who did the ordering get the money??? Witness PetroMena and their floater at Jurong Shipyard a couple of months ago -- no money to pay for delivery. And that rig even had a juicy 5-yr contract with Petrobras! Still sold by the yard "at auction" to recoup the final payment installment. Look at Gulf of Mexico jackups! Amazing that only a handful of rigs are working in what was once the epicenter of the world for jackups. If oil/gas prices don't move higher rather quickly I'm afraid it looks not-so-good for drillers. Remember the words "contract renegotiation" for those companies with backlogs. Oil companies and drillers take turns "screwing" each other, and have done so forever. It's fixing to be the oil companies turn...or so it's looking. I have been through a period of extreme decline in the driller world, as some of you have, in the 80's. Things happen that you would never have thought would happen. These days the capital stakes are many many times what they were back then when we bought and sold jackups for a few million and a floater for maybe 30 million. Vultures, start your engines. (And some of the first vultures will be the Norwegians, feeding on their own...they are smart like that. lol) big

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