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AMD 215.05-2.2%2:25 PM EST
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To: Petz who wrote (1801)10/29/1997 2:08:00 PM
From: Paul Engel  Read Replies (1) of 6843
 
Petz - Re: "2. At 20-25% reduction per quarter, Intel's yield would have to be increasing by 150% a year to stay even. ...NOT"

Why do you assume NOT?

This 150% yield increase is quite doable. Don't forget, Intel has the Deschutes (0.25 micron Pentium II + other goodies) already in pre-production and it has a greatly reduced die size. Similar die size reductiions are already in place with the Tillamook which will become an even bigger contributor to sales as the 0.25 micron process ramps up.

Re: "a company which is not growing revenues or sales."

Intel's Q397 sales were UP from Q297 sales by almost $200,000,000 - that is modest growth, but quite impressive considering the size of their CPU price cuts. Admittedly, these are still down from Q197's revenue ($6.4 Billion) but Intel did indicate that Q4 revenue would be up slightly from Q3. Slow growth for now - but still growth.

And, Intel stated that their 0.25 micron process was already being ramped up in 4 fabs (up from 2 fabs just a few months ago) - so am 150% yield improvement is quite doable.

And DEC will be providing Intel with ANOTHER fab that will be upgraded to Intel's 0.25 micron process.

You have to bear in mind that Intel got to be a $24 Billion company by doing more than just a few things right.

Paul
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