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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: ayn rand who wrote (89550)8/8/2009 10:14:10 AM
From: gregor_us  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
What's happened with Iraqi oil is that even among global depletionists, myself included, there was a view that Iraqi production had bottomed and would start a 5 year uptrend, as there was indeed a recovery in 2008 above 2007 production levels. What many of us had not known, and I now believe it's because even the Iraqis did not know, was how horrifically damaged the fields are. But that's not a surprise. Lack of information of such a technical and geological kind on a domestic level is to be expected when you have had a regime of dictatorship passing into war. The bottom line is that the balk from Western oil cos to go into Iraq at the Offering level from the new Iraq gov is strong indication that the lifting costs are much, much, much higher in Iraq now than anyone had expected. You know you are in a bad place when the situation is even worse than global depletionsists (peak oilers) have been surprised.

Bottom line: Iraq has alot of oil. But you can, in fact, do severe damage to oil fields over time. Result? Lots of oil still to extract from Iraq but at much higher cost.

Shocker.

G

Table 1.1b : eia.doe.gov
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