To: TRIG who wrote (21834) 8/8/2009 10:25:41 AM
From: dvdw© of 21879
When you focus on applications and the influence of oil cartels on capitalism, its a given that OIL is toast.
Cartels are naturally to be counterprogramed. Substitution is the weapon of choice.
Oil has a cost of goods to produce, solar and wind have only a capital goods investment and then a zero cost of goods.
the cartels have some idea about what is about to hit them, the recent extortion in prices is contrivance, but at the same time smart money was leaving oil and has been for two years.
The application of oil as fuel for transportation will begin to drop substantially within 3 years. New batteries, and ultra capacitors resulting from nano particalization of materials virtually guarantee a loss of market share for oil.
New engines, mag lev and superconducting motors, are the now story.
Natural gas is so plentiful the new drilling technology could see it pick up applications utility against oil as well.
the business case is done, oil is toast, despite the appearances that it has utility, beyond its contribution value to carbon fiber, chemicals etc....
the cartels who depend on oil are going to be fully rationalized to the margin. no matter, we see the smartest of them buying board seats in battery companies, now this may carry a sabotage element, but the fact is, the lid is coming off, and when push comes to shove, the semi conductor capital equipment industry will enable higher productivity per unit of input, than all/any oil strategies combined.
Its the story about the good old oil boys, versus the best capitalists the world has ever seen.
Where Moores Law trumps extortion by way of constant innovation.
Oil will never compete with the productivity of the semi conductor industry, and now that the semi industry is ramping up to take share of markets for energy, kiss the sky for the last time because crude is what it is, just crude.
Cabals to rig prices higher will be thoroughly counter programed, within 5 to 7 years. we'll see the last hurrah for the hegemony of oil in transportation. The idea that huge price spikes will enrich the producers in the mean time, is just poppycock. higher prices have assured substitution....greed and fear the weapons, of cartels...will be turned against any that would have it that way.
given the choice, consumers will choose solutions from other industries whose business models are not based on scarcity and hegemony....and that is the final word, the nail in oils coffin. |
