I know you're "independent" now, apparently so are MANY former disgusted (R) Bush voters:
(charts at link)
gallup.com
Democratic Advantage in Party Identification Widens Post-Election
Change due to drop in Republican affiliation, increase in independent affiliation
by Jeffrey M. Jones
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's first poll conducted following this year's midterm election shows a widening Democratic advantage in national party identification. The increased Democratic gap is a function of fewer Americans identifying as Republicans and more as independents, rather than an expanding Democratic base. Shifts in party identification following an election are not uncommon, particularly when one party is seen as having done very well. The initial post-election advantage usually shrinks by early December of the election year -- although in some cases a smaller party advantage has remained for at least a couple months after the election.
The 2006 Post-Election Shift
In the Nov. 9-12, 2006 Gallup Poll, 35% of Americans identified as Democrats, 24% as Republicans, and 40% as independents. That compares with 34% Democratic, 31% Republican, and 32% independent identification in Gallup's final pre-election poll. Thus, following the election, there was a significant increase in the percentage of Americans calling themselves independent (from 32% to 40%), a significant drop in the percentage of Republican identifiers (31% to 24%), and no meaningful change in the percentage of Democrats (34% to 35%).
Those changes pushed the Democratic advantage in partisanship to 11 percentage points, compared with a 3-point advantage before the election and an average 4-point advantage for all of 2006. For 2006, the party identification averages are 34% Democratic, 30% Republican, and 34% independent. The 11-point Democratic advantage in partisanship is one of the larger gaps Gallup has observed in a single poll over the last 20 years.
The Republican and independent percentages are unusual compared with historical Gallup polling. Gallup has not measured a lower percentage of Republican identifiers in a poll since only 20% of Americans called themselves Republicans in December 1998 after the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach Bill Clinton. Also, Gallup has not recorded a higher percentage of independents in a poll since January 2004 (43%).
The increasing Democratic advantage is also evident by the fact that independents are now twice as likely to say they lean to the Democratic rather than Republican Party. When these "leaners" are allocated with the party identifiers, the Democratic advantage is 22 percentage points, as 56% of Americans currently identify with or lean to the Democratic Party and 34% identify with or lean to the Republican Party. In the final pre-election poll, the Democrats held a 49% to 39% advantage in leaned-party identification. For the year, the Democratic margin is 50% to 40% to date.
Past Post-Election Shifts
A shift in party identification following an election is not unusual, but does not always occur. Notable shifts have been observed following the 2004, 2002, 1994, and 1992 elections. There were no perceptible changes in national partisanship following the 1996-2000 elections. |
