You probably know my model. But if not, it's pretty much laid out here:
gregor.us
I figure we do this deflation-inflation oscillation one more time. That would make, by my count, 3 major phases. The first was the 2000 crash and reflation. The second is of course right here, right now: the 2008 crash and current reflation. The final oscillation may not contain a subsequent reflation phase. For, I suspect now, that the coming reflation will be the final one-- which makes the next collapse irrevocable. There likely will be no reflationary lever left. We did it all.
The amplitude of the oscillation is of course increasing, but the waves are probably decreasing in length. It's hard to imagine we get beyond 24 months this time in the coming reflation before the spread between higher energy prices and interest rates takes its final, brutal toll on the US.
This reflation party ends no later than March 2011, imo. By Q3 2010, the ravages of higher oil and interest rates will already be doing severe damage. There will be much talk on TV however, over the next 9 months, that exports are recovering. However, residential and commercial housing will, at best rest on a shelf of short-lived stability.
If a speculator is lucky, this thing powers into May of 2010. As I am sure you would agree, there ain't a thing that's good about it. I only wish my fellow Americans owned at least 15% of their current total debt exposure in Silver. 100.00 dollar silver seems quite achievable, from here.
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