Thank you. The decline of the US middle class has been the subject of foreign commentary, too.
Der Spiegel: Crisis Plunges US Middle Class into Poverty
Message 25595601
Maybe it took someone like Elizabeth Warren to make people pay attention. Some readers will note, perhaps, that the beginning of the decline coincided with the first oil embargo.
Many propose energy costs can be mitigated for a while longer; I disagree. This is a major point of divergence with Gregor.
"When oil hit $147, we hit the limit of what economies could sustain; millions of people were marginalized, especially (but not only) in the US. At a certain price point, it's true that different forms of energy become "cost effective." But here's the reality: at a certain price point, increasing numbers of consumers just can't afford it. Period. Then you get demand destruction, just as we saw when crude hit $147. Transit systems suddenly became overloaded. Food costs soared - agricultural shipments from California went up over 20% to end-users. The price of plastics soared. WHO issued desperate pleas for help as millions starved in Africa. Rush hours disappeared, as people just stopped using their cars. They turned down the heat everywhere: at home, in offices."
Message 25801566
"In our lifetime, we've witnessed an explosion of historically unprecedented abundance. Many still don't understand that this was a short "blip" in time, and view many aspects of their existence, including the availability of personal transport as an entitlement. However we can now foresee reversion to previous norms.
Technology will provide some answers, but the underlying fundamental is the cost of energy, which will continue to rise. As it does, increasingly large portions of society will be marginalized: forced to adapt, as the cost of energy consumes increasing portions of their income for heat, light, transportation, food, water, infrastructure, education, raw materials: indeed, for every aspect of their existence."
Message 24840770
Commutes Speed Up as Fewer Drive
Message 25602547
---
With recent USD declines, it's obvious that oil doesn't need to hit $147 for equivalent effects. When oil reaches $100 (or less, depending on USD decline) the pressure of marginalization will resume. We're skating on the edge, even now.
It's true that wind power (for example) has increased to ~4% of US energy production. But alt energy is lagging demand, and new sources such as nuclear will be the only way to satisfy significant need in the near-term future.
We are witnessing the end of fantastic abundance, unique in human history. It was fed by once-unlimited access to cheap energy. The next 50 years and beyond will see wrenching and painful change; the very rich will feel the least pain, but none will escape.
Jim |
