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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: cyesp who wrote (123360)8/17/2009 12:19:32 AM
From: Salt'n'Peppa2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 206325
 
cyesp, the article addresses hyperbolic decline and his premise is that decline is catastrophic, not hyperbolic.

"The reason is clear: most wells do not maintain the hyperbolic decline projection indicated from their first months or years of production. Production rates commonly exhibit abrupt, catastrophic departures from hyperbolic decline as early as 12-18 months into the production cycle..."

Thus, the reason for his 30% lower estimated EUR.

I have a very good friend who spends his career looking at exactly this stuff. He is in agreement with the article and has been saying, ever since the media frenzy over shale gas began, that they are over-estimating shale gas potential.

There is definitely a lot of gas. Nobody can dispute that.
The economics of the situation are what is in question.

Cheers,
S&P
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