The Obama - Clinton Disaster Message Board

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Politics : The Obama - Clinton Disaster

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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (17504)	8/18/2009 7:15:37 PM
From: SGJ	Read Replies (1) of 103300

Glad to hear that. Yet all of what you cite is not socialist. The only direct socialist action by the government in the financial industry so far is buying Citibank common. Most all of the other programs, bail outs, giveaways and loans (including preferred) are not. Did you read deutsche Bank's vision on res and CRE? No. Estimating 48% of ALL homes in US having negative equity by 2011 sometime Should this come to pass it won't have any affect on the economy whatsover. Home equity does not provide jobs or increase the GDP. Its always a phantom asset. Plus, it's going to be temporary state. The worst case is people are going to have to stay longer in their homes or have an unwanted rental property. That's what I would advise. There are worse things. Estimating 5060% default rate on resetting CRE by EOY 2012. I've seen estimates of resets by 2012/3 of $4T in CRE so we are talking the biggest bloodbath in US history AFA CRE is concerned This estimate is obviously using an extreme factor or factors in the formula. What are they? Are they referenced in the article? I would guess they are using extremely high vacancy rates and LTV's in Class A and B properties. As for high LTV's, that's one of the few benefits of FIRREA. So any demons lurking there is a stretch. Also, before such a cataclysmic default, the whole game of musical chairs of tenant turnover/lease rate renegotiation/loan restructure/ property class migration has to play out. All these natural market failsafes must be breached. 2-3 years is just not enough time for your bloodbath to play out. What will all those service economy minimum wage clerks do? What they always do. Just you don't be one of them. Think abundance.

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