2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 467.03

+2.5%

Feb 9 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: TobagoJack who wrote (53781)	8/20/2009 6:22:06 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (3) of 220121

To All; This morning I placed the following range trade on the EUR / USD pair Sell March 22 Strike 1.53 EUR/USD CALL:: for 205 pips ($2,050 per 100,000 EUR) Sell March 22 Strike 1.33 EUR/USD PUT for 204 pips ($2,050 per 100,000 EUR) Credit proceeds from selling the options $ 4000 per 100,000 EUR is sold at the same time. This morning Implied Volatility 13.5% Daily depreciation (Theta) $20 per 100,000 EUR) Delta –about 12,500 EUR Vega - $173 Profitable range 1.31 EUR/USD trough 1.55 EUR/USD Reasoning; IMHO the adequate range for the EU is and EUR/USD exchange rate around 1.40 to 142 at present time An exchange rate above the 1.42 range would make EU exports expensive and in a deflationary environment the ECB will need to lower rates. On the other hand the US is also interested n a weaker USD to jumpstart it’s economy and generate more jobs and therefore the low interest rate policy of the FED will stay in place until early 2010 Unemployment rate will be not improving in the US and stay around this level for a prolonged period of time. Even if the new unemployment numbers will show improvement it will not translate into substantial new job creations. Similar situation related to employment will prevail also in Europe . This tag of war of competitive depreciation of the US and EU would hold IMHO the exchange rate in the above mentioned range. Many predict that the USD has bottomed and would rally, and on the other hand entities like PIMCO anticipate further weakening of the USD and vanishing status of reserve currency. Even after those assumptions it does not mean that over the 6 months of the life of the contracts positions should not be adjusted BWDIK Best of luck Haim

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next