Spekulatius, I've considered your post, and I give up on finding any good clunker-car ideas to short.
Maybe Group 1, or perhaps Sonic. Group 1 has suspended their clunker program as of today because of paperwork issues with the government. (The program ends Monday anyway, I believe.) These companies have exposure to southern states and may be adversely affected by hurricanes this season.
The stocks in the sector seem to me to rise and fall together. So if shorting, it may not matter which auto retailer one chooses. My bet would be GPI at current price.
finance.yahoo.com
Nice if somebody bought at lows this year---almost ten baggers on some. (Aside: Geez! So quickly and so large. If I didn't see it, I wouldn't believe it. Sorry I missed it. These auto retailers run on a lot of debt, e.g. 2:1 d/e, and that scared me out when the debt market froze in that Nov-Mar period.)
I don't know about Ford or parts suppliers, or anything else related that I could see as a short here.
I own PAG: I like Mr. Penske for his business acumen. In addition to being "just" an auto retailer, PAG has bought the Saturn business from GM, and PAG is the only dealer(distributor) of the "Smart Fortwo" in the USA. So that gives PAG some added profit opportunities. |
