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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (35209)	8/21/2009 11:29:17 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) of 78751

I'll consider cashing out my NOC shares as well. NOC may not be fully-valued (imo), but perhaps it's not undervalued either. The dividend yield at 3.6% isn't bad; otoh it's not great either. P/e at 9 (for '10 estimates) is low for NOC; otoh, 9 itself isn't really low in this market. Maybe 9 is even reasonable for a company like NOC where roe is never that good. A possible trade off for the p/e is that since NOC is so entrenched in the USA federal defense business (Northrop = the Pentagon's third-largest contractor by sales), it's likely to still keep winning big procurement orders. Maybe NOC is too important to fail, and so that's built into the stock price as a margin-of-safety? Not convinced of this. My shares purchased 10/'08 and I show an overall small loss. I believe I'd rather sell than hold, and just use the cash to deploy elsewhere... ...and I have a lot of cash to deploy elsewhere. If I only knew where elsewhere was. -g- ============== NOC seems representative of stocks in my portfolio. While I haven't checked everywhere and everything to confirm, it just seems like anything that I bought July-Dec '08 still shows a loss with those specific shares. Otoh, shares of everything that I bought Jan-April seem to show a gain. Overall, my portfolios are down from '08, and I don't hold much hope they'll get back up there anytime soon.

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