If inputs did not vary, there would be no life.
If things were predictable we would die of boredom.
If someone promises to deliver you tomorrows newspaper today, don't subscribe. They are the Devil. You don't want to know.
All my life I have been cursed to know exactly what will happen tomorrow. The trouble is, nobody will believe me. I also know I will always be poor and unsuccessful so it is extremely depressing!
Wait! News flash coming in.. I am going to steal a Loneclone patent and become a trillionaire!
But ... orgies and high living at my Swiss Mountain Villa lead to premature physical decay.
Then I die falling out of my wheelchair and down the stairs after being chased by Loneclone at a nursing home.
I did not want to know that.
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RE analysis. You need to make analysis as simple as your computing device. Line up all the criteria and inputs. Cross out all that involve fractions, or math formula. If you think about it, there are simple ways to tell if a company is going to succeed. Take a look at who runs it. do they sound like they are going to get rich? are they crooked enough? Do they blow the right copy? Do they have big political connections. Do they sound totally impractical and need way too much money to get where they want to go? A sure fire winner. Who buys it is who you buy stock from. Brokers. They are suckers for an impractical engineering story that is way too good to be true. This is the only thing that gets them going. Castles in spain. If the castle sounds good enough, i.e. a total fabrication, but you think they are sleazy enuff to sustain it, then it is a buy. Once in a 100 outings, the orebody has a competent junior geo on it, and he can actually find a mine within budget. You have to look for that.
I know this. I have done mining for 33 years, and bought mining stock for 48. I know real. I know bullshit. If they actually report the right geology it's fairly simple. I walk into brokers offices all the time. I know they don't know. they talk big office, and all, but they are clued out technically, no matter how smart they are. There are things that cannot be known unless you work in the biz at the engineering and geology level. Otherwise it's guesswork. So the smart brokers rely on experts that they know. They have that phone call, like who wants to be a millionaire. But if the expert does not know the whole story or is not getting payola, the story fades fast. What the broker needs is not logiv, but a story that will sell. The odds of having engineering efficacy, a story that will sell in a bad market, and the broker understanding this are long.
In this market, an ordinary mine, which would blow out in a bull market, will not even get touched. And whether it has attractive character because of metallurgy, a new approach, or low cost to get going, it is not going to get ntoiced, as it is not "exciting".
You cannot just do number crunching on the eventual worth of a company. Eventual worth is just a number game. It does not sell stock today. We must remember that the paper game is strictly Dutch Tulips. It has no relation to Dun and Bradstreet or the possibilities thereof. And in this market we are strictly in a let's get to cash fast more than usual.
This day trade attitude.. is underscored by how fast this thread ignored the really interesting geology of UW and the White Gold area players. They have the possibility of mine written all over them. Overhangs are the very real no-mine attitude of envi groups and government. This area is getting bad press, much like the Sandspring deal in Guyana got bad press because of their back door deal with the underlying owners, which is a sand bag job short of 20 million ounces being found. On the other hand it looks like SSP if they make it will achieve big ounces.. at least that is how it looks geologically by people who know.
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