There were only 3 million shares short when this started!
As far as the AT&T, This Guy is really a dweeb!!!
Take his points one by one.
"""""For starters, AT&T a few years ago started its own voice over IP service called CallVantage - but quietly shut down the service earlier this year."""""
DUH, they failed, but wouldn't that mean they could buy a successful provider like Vonage? Get revenues from customers using their competition's pipes?
""""“We think it would be dangerous for a deep-pocketed company like AT&T to buy Vonage, because it would be forced to take on the legal liabilities that would accompany such an acquisition,”""""
DUH, The legal liabilities ALL SETTLED last year!!!
"""Stating the obvious, he also notes that AT&T has a stronger brand than Vonage, and would gain little in terms of brand value."""
DUH, Vonage's Brand is very strong in the pure Voip space.
"""Finally, he also contends that Vonage’s iPhone application is no threat to AT&T Wireless.""""
DUH, who ever said it was? Just another service provided, like Woldwide calling, and the 25 other features they provide!
HE NEVER SPECULATES THE OTHER SIDE - WHY WOULD AT&T WANT TO BUY VONAGE?
WHY would anybody take them over?
1.) GREAT UNIVERSAL PRODUCT - Useable anywhere there is broadband! ANYONE THAT BOUGHT THIS COULD BE MAKING MONEY WHILE THEIR CUSTOMERS USED THE COMPETITIONS PIPES.
2.) $900 million Revenues
3.) MORE Revenues projected with the new Worldwide offering
4.) Cash flow Positive CFP last three quarters.
5.) POSITIVE EARNINGS THE LAST TWO QUARTERS
6.) Great Name Recognition, with the recognised best product.
7.) HUGE MARKET, INTERNATIONAL, not limited by proprietory service, OR existing customers.
9.) New products and services!
10. AN INSTANT 2.5 million (soon to be more) paying customers
WHO would be likely take them over?
1.) ANY one of the CABLE Companies, if they wanted to expand outside of their territory, internationally, or just plain want to become the largest supplier.
2.) ANY one of the TELCO Companies, national or INTERNATIONAL, if they wanted to expand outside of their territory.
3.) ANY of the MEDIA GIANTS could be interested. Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, etc. Imagine what they could do with this company?
4.)AN INVESTMENT GROUP like the one that bought SKYPE
SKYPE WAS SOLD FOR 2.75 BILLION - A COMPANY WITH LESS THEN $600 million in revenues
HOW MUCH would a reasonable takeover offer be?
They paid 4.5X revenues,
Take Vonage's $900 million revenue number, add their $90 million cash and subtract their $240 million debt
It leaves us with $750 million.
Take that 4.5X Skype number and you end up with a $3.37 Billion takeover price.
$21.63 a share!!
Do you think it would be impossible to sell this to someone in the $7 - $10 ramge?
This would be instant success in the voip universe! Of cours AT&T dumped their failure.
AND THERE IS ONE MORE THING THE ONE SIDED IDIOT DIDN'T MENTION IN HIS "ANALYSIS".
VONAGE CEO MARC LEFAR HAS ALREADY BEEN INVOLVED WITH SELLING A COMPANY TO AT&T. There are ties there. |
