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Biotech / Medical : ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD)

ACAD 22.69

-0.1%

3:59 PM EDT

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From: mopgcw	9/5/2009 11:15:59 AM
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Citi: ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) Sell/Speculative (3S) from Hold/Speculative Pimavanserin Ph. 3 Trail Fails; Downgrade to Sell; TP Reduced to $1.50 or Cash **************************************************************************** Lucy Lu, MD Kia Khaleghpour, PhD ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- * What is New - ACAD reported negative Ph. 3 trial results for Pimavanserin in Parkinson's Disease Psychosis (PDP). The study failed to hit its primary endpoint of mean change from baseline in antipsychotic efficacy. * Ph. 3 Trial Design - Trial enrolled 298 pts randomized to 10mg or 40mg Pimavanserin, or Placebo, over 6 weeks. The primary endpoint was antipsychotic efficacy measured by SAPS. For successful trial, at least one Pimavanserin arm had to hit p<.025 vs. placebo. * Primary Efficacy Endpoint - Mean reported change from baseline on SAPS at 6 weeks for Pimavanserin 10mg, 40mg and placebo was -5.8, -6.7 (ns), and -5.9, respectively. * Cash - ACAD held $66M in cash at June 30. Expects its cash balance to be greater than $40M at year-end. * Changes to the Model - See note for changes to the model. * Conclusions - We are reducing our target price to $1.50 per share, or 1x cash value, from $4.50. We believe these negative trial results will make it almost impossible for Pimavanserin to secure FDA approval in PDP. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price (31 Aug 09)............US$5.84 Target price..................US$1.50 Expected share price return...-74.3% Expected dividend yield..........0.0% Expected total return.........-74.3% Market Cap....................US$218M

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