Here's something telling. I run a season ticket pool for the Seattle Mariners. They probably will not make the playoffs, yet they have done well enough that MLB ordered them to print playoff tickets just in case. Every prior year when this has occurred, my plan buddies lap up all possible tickets, and then some extras, too, up to and including 2005, the most recent year we were offered possible tickets. This year, however, demand was precisely zero. Nada. Zilch. It isn't just that they probably won't make the playoffs -- that has been the case more than 1/2 the time they've offered tickets. The economic future simply is not passing the smell test right now.
interesting observation...i just listened to robert prechter on
financialsense.com
it was a long interview...a few minutes over an hour i think...and very well conducted. prechter makes a strong case for deflation and depression. he managed to counter every argument puplava brought forth (he's looking for inflation). but i noticed that his entire premise is based on the belief that the american consumer is finished for good (or a really really long time) and i wonder if this is true. we were in costco yesterday, and it felt like christmas...even the checkers were commenting on the bustle...in july we went to yellowstone and every campground and room was booked.
so i wonder...if the fed gives us money, will we spend it? prechter's view assumes the consumer is finished, and maybe he/she/they/we are...or maybe we're just waiting for a money fix so we can buy more stuff. we'll see.
while you are at it (if you go to the financial sense link) check out the interview in part two of the 3rd hour with neil howe. it's the fourth turning, folks, and all we can really do is hang on and hope for the best...virtually every war we have ever fought was fought during the fourth turning - paraphrased somewhat... |
