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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Blue On Black who wrote (6270)10/30/1997 9:06:00 AM
From: John Dally  Read Replies (1) of 9285
 
Hi Lee,

Another place to look are the US-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. They're down a lot, however, the Far East represents on the order of 30-40% of their revenue. These customers are now broke!

In macro economic terms, PC units sales were reported to be up 16% year over year, however, I would guess that average sales prices are down by more than that. So, total revenue for the industry, ie boxmakers, semi manufacturers, and semi equipment manufacturers is down year over year, yet valuations are still up an average of 100% from last summer's low. (Take a look at the SOX.) The entire sector is in big trouble.

Under the following graph, you can click on "Stocks in Industry Group" to look for candidates:

tscn.com

Best regards, John.
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