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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: Smiling Bob who wrote (219535)9/9/2009 3:59:52 PM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
<getting killed by the fact that people are NOT spending and getting creamed by the market's fantasy that they are>

Ouch. Yeah, my research job is OK for now. I'm short a few things, but mostly just keep hitting stops. I guess it's still tooearly.

Be careful shorting this mess - it's a jungle out there. I'm with you on leaning short; for me it's partially a matter of knowing I did everything I possibly could to keep from losing too much in the bear. I figure if I'm right and things go into the crapper again, I'd better have plenty of financial security. If I'm wrong and financial Armageddon doesn't come, then it should be relatively easy to keep a steady paycheck. The nightmare would be soaring financial markets and 25% unemployment - I'd have no financial security either way. I think the odds of that are pretty remote given what we understand about liquidity creation.

Right now, dollar weakness is a bear's worst enemy. Unless something causes the dollar to catch a bid again, it will be hard to make money borrowing and selling stuff for dollars. Of course, with everybody short the dollar, it won't take much to launch another dollar rally, but we're lacking the catalyst to ignite the fuel.

BC
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