This is an interesting 3 way contest. It may tell who Brazil thinks their future threats are, and when.
F 18 has been around longest, almost everything is operational and has history.
This is the choice if there will be a threat in the next 5 years.
Rafale and Gripen are earlier in their development, with the Rafale further along.
The Rafale has radar capability that can act like a mini Awacs, and coordinate other aircraft. The F-18 has some of this capability.
The Gripen can operate from very short runways, which Brazil could quickly build near their borders.
The Gripen is also the cheapest by far, but may have the least tech transfer potential.
**********
If Brazil is fighting Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, or Bolivia, Gripen would be the best choice.
If Venezuela (with lots of Russian planes) is the adversary, either the F-18 or the Rafale are better.
The F-18 has a very good availablity record, meaning it can be maintained at at a high actiivty pace during operations. That would be critical in a conflict with Venezuela. Both countries are large enough there would not be a knock out on day one.
By Day Five, the higher performance Russian stuff (Mig-29) will have longer turn around times, maybe flying every other day. The F-18s will be up every day. By the end of second week, the high end Russian stuff will be a minor factor. Of course, the earlier planes, like the Mig-17 and the Mig-21 will still be flying, but they have both limited range and limit electronics and weapon system capabilities, which can be overmatched by the existing Mirage 2000.
If the potential conflict will not occur for 5 years or more, the Rafale may be best. Brazil will have much more leverage with France to get technology than with the US - there may be some degree of co-development. France really needs customers to spread the cost of weapons, the US, not as much.
Technology transfer from the Gripen would be less, simply because Sweden with 9.5 million people has less technology than France with 60 million.
*********
One wild card - the US basically put a 1 Billion dollar aircraft plant in Poland to get them to buy the F-16.
There might be a similar offer with the F-18.
Fear of this could drive a better deal with France. |
