Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (90302)	9/11/2009 9:44:51 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) of 94695

So did the dollar, new lows. 10-year bond forming right shoulder of the H&S pattern. When it finally crashes, then bulls have to worry. A sovereign bond crash along with the currency crash is a known cause of big stock market meltdowns. Not that our country's rating is any better than Argentina's before their currency collapsed, but our rating agencies rate countries, so we obviously are a good customer. Few countries that experienced "the melt" had budget and current account deficits in excess of 3% of GDP, while our budget deficit is now somewhere in the low double digits. Thank God the current account deficit came down. For now the bond is fine, so the bulls rock on. The currency is sucking, but it only matters once perception becomes reality. For now the perception is that the sucking currency is very bullish, and that the Chinese and others will not sell. I'm not worried about 10-year rates being low while the Fed is printing, cause the Fed is a very reliable counterparty. -g-

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