hello pezz, today's report:
(i) did a round of conference calls via skype, for around 2 hours all-in, with folks in canada and philippines, all free of charge, a nice tool generously provided by past investors in any and everything to do with the internet
speaking of which, re mail finance.yahoo.com , i am guessing that it would eventually return to single digit before disappearing entirely, but given recent momentum, you should be well out of the engagement and offloaded on some one less fortunate than you :0)
(ii) will take daughter to some ice skating show
(iii) remain negative on general equity markets
just in in-tray
Dow Jones close 10-Sep-2001: 9605.51
Dow Jones close 11-Sep-2009: 9605.41
iow, the general market went absolutely nowhere in 7 years, and will, imo, go nowhere for the next 14, at which time it should more sincerely tumble. so, peeing against the wind should generally prove to be peeing against the wind. only issue is how we happen to be dressed as we do so.
(iv) i have been so wrapped up in whatever i needed to do and have not been feeling any urgency to review and recalibrate my portfolio - satisfaction does that, and that is admittedly dangerous.
i am at:
5.5% cash (even split usd/hkd, and cad)
33% physical/paper metals
44% rental re
17.5% equity (mostly gdx, vermilion, petrobank, and an old line industrial company hiding a sexy new enterprise, tagged with some paas, cameco, etc etc of the usual suspects)
i am obviously positioned for hyper something and intend to load up on leverage when called for. i do not believe my position is fatal should i be a bit wrong about the path from zimbabwe to argentina or a bit off with the timing of the journey.
i can trade around the margins of gdx (7%), as well as paper gold (18%), and will trade it when suitable, and can do short naked put / short covered call when opportune.
i do have facility to rapidly leverage up on paper gold as well as gdx on fairly low interest basis by 30% of nav by a few button pushes, and i am as usual fearful of such capability / capacity, even though i do do so occasionally when wishing to tempt gods. this year's swiss chf trade was an example.
the big question to self: is gold @ 1050 the level or is 1100 / 1150 / 1200 for this iteration?
i am feeling, without foundation, but just feel (usa budget year start, seasonality, etc etc) that gold will gain to march 2010, and an temporary step-aside would be wise at that juncture, but not before.
cheers, tj |
