HOLI - Hollysys Automation Technologies, Ltd. Message Board

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Technology Stocks : HOLI - Hollysys Automation Technologies, Ltd.

HOLI 26.42

0.0%

Jul 26 4:00 PM EDT

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From: FHM	9/13/2009 9:43:46 AM
	of 53

I recently put pencil to paper and projected out estimated annual earnings for the next 10 years. I started with Tobin's estimates for fiscal year 6/09-6/10 of $0.61 and fiscal year 6/10-6/11 of $0.77 (estimates available on Schwab). applying a 15x multiplier I come out with a target of $9.15 for next year; applying a 20x multiplier I come up with a target of $12.20. applying a 15x multiplier I come out with a target of $11.55 for year 2; and applying a 20x multiplier I come up with a target of $15.40. extrapolating a growth rate of 25% per year thereafter -- consistent with Tobin's 25% annual growth rate projection for the next 5 year timeframe -- I went on to calculate targets for years 3, 4, 5 and 10. I invite you to double-check my math, but here's what I came up with: 3 yrs from now: $14.44 tgt at 15x; $19.25 at 20x 4 yrs from now: $18.00 tgt at 15x; $24.00 at 20x 5 yrs from now: $22.50 tgt at 15x; $30.00 at 20x and 10 yrs from now: $68.66 tgt at 15x; $91.60 at 20x so I expect a pps of $68.66-$91.60 in 10 years spot on? way off? what do YOU think? and why? thanks.

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