ACTM $100 Million Cable Modem Contract with MOT Message Board

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Technology Stocks : ACTM $100 Million Cable Modem Contract with MOT

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To: DD™ who wrote (285)	10/30/1997 12:03:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (6) of 1250

On the conference call I believe mgmt projected a sales level for 1998 consistent with an average $80 million per quarter. They also projected a return in 1998 "to historical levels of profitability". If so, they should make over $.40 in some 1998 quarter and the stock would be $25-30. The question is are they believable. The CFO told me on the last day of September that everything was fine for the quarter just ending. It was not. A mgmt that on the last day of the quarter neither knows that it has a sales or a margin problem is a mgmt that at best is spread too thin. I am not giving them the benefit of the doubt and see no reason why tax loss selling will not drive this down to about $10. However, since I regard mgmt as the single most important criteria in a stock investment, I would rate this "avoid" at any price. (If they do not know what is going on about a just ended quarter, why should we assume a projection about the future is any better?) Any other opinions? Paul?

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