Bill - Re: Intel's 1998 "Drivers"
1. Pentium MMX (Tillamook) 200/233/266 MHz for notebooks - should be in full swing by February/March 1998.
2. Deschutes - Should be in production Q198 as a Pentium II follow on - but still using 440LX chip set at 66 MHz - great for Desktops.
3. Deschutes + 440BX - 100 MHZ Bus - Should be announced in Q298 and by Q398 will replace Pentium Pro as the standard Server Platform. Look for Q3/Q4 to reflect the sales/profit from this combination.
4. 50% transistion point for Intel CPUs to be Pentium II/Slot I/II.
Intel is producing +/- 20,000,000 CPUs per quarter. If this grows to 22,000,000 by next year (modest growth) and HALF of them are Pentium II, then 11,000,000 Pentium II/Deschutes will ship in Q3 (+/-).
If the Pentium II ASP is $400 by that time (note $400 is TODAY the LOWEST priced Pentium II, a mere 233 MHz), then this product will account for $4.4 Billion in revenue.
Assuming the rest of the Pentium Line has a $175 ASP, this adds another $1.92 Billion, giving $6.3 Billion for CPU revenue ONLY! Add another 15% for other products, and Intel could possibly report $7.3 Billion in Q398. This represents an 18% increase from the past Q3 results.
Assuming the Pentium II transition increases beyond 50% then the weighted average of CPU sales will increase. Pentium II ASPs will, of course, slip below $400 but these will replace the $175 ASP Pentium MMX sales - not a bad trade off.
These projections, of course, are conjecture but do offer an idea of what may be in store as Intel completes its product transitions.
Beyond Q3/Q4 98, the era of MERCED will begin. This will mark Intel's ascendancy into the MainFrame replacement - which will take 5 to 10 years, but 1999 will mark the beginning. IBM's big Iron will not go away - legacy applications will see to that.
But 1999 will demark the beginning of Big Silicon to displace Big Iron. And Merced is Big Silicon.
Paul |
