Against all bearish instincts, I am forced to conclude after review of r/decent data and astute commentary that the recovery in the US will surprise for its strength, that as a result US shares will do very well in the near term, and that the new challenge facing the PTB [powers that be] will be the timing of the withdrawal of the well-spiked punch bowl.
At least this is what two reputable economic forecasting services say, and one - the better of the two - says a strong recovery is unambiguously certain. I pay close attention when neutrals with no mutts in the fight make these kinds of statements.
I have made a small foray into traditional equities as a result, NUE, because I know it fairly well and because astute commentator suggested it. But that, along with silver via HL, is the only change I've made. Oh, and a small tranche of FCG, a basket of US natgas producers. Natural gas is being practically given away, has been at historical lows, so the upside potential is enormous. No muss, no fuss, a simple waiting game with the only decision to be made is the timing of the sale after the inevitable return to the mean takes place.
The year has been fairly good to me, but assuredly not as good as the geniuses who bought equities hand-over-fist in March. I've slept better, however. And did not take inordinate risks.
Good to hear about La Femme Coconut, she's going to be a pistol. Son is becoming champion swimmer thanks to my philosophy that the best way to raise a boy is to keep him tired. Unexpectedly becoming a major military historian, esp. US Civil War and WWII, source of this recent obsession is unknown. Perhaps he is Patton reincarnated. God help us.
I think volatility is pretty much dead for the time being. But don't be surprised to see some major moves up in US equities this Fall. Somewhere, somehow a new bubble is becoming inflated. Or we could be in the closing jaws of a bear rally. In any event, I am protected and it seems you are too. Capital is a b**** to replace.
I think HK RE is a beautiful thing...just think of all those recently wealthy mainland guys with money to burn.
|
