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Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing

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To: Crossy who wrote (82542)	9/20/2009 1:54:30 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (2) of 118717

I think the unintended consequence of the rally is the US dollar could be close to making a reversal to the upside. Lot's of grumbling about how much the dollar has been going down the past couple months, as it sets the stage for a reversal. In the near term, a big reversal in the dollar sets the stage for a lot of profit taking in the high beta names. The dollar has been pretty closely related to nat gas all year, which just made a huge reversal. I wouldn't be shocked if we see the US dollar begin to change course. All the FED has to do is eliminate the word "extended" from it's next policy statement about interest rates staying at exceptionally low levels. With JPM saying they will restart their dividends in 2010, I would think that the FED's special assistance could come to an end by the end of the year. I think they just want to see the unemployment rate to start decreasing. That seems inevitable over the next couple of months with job losses falling to 225K a month, down from 650K a month earlier in the year. UUP looks like a 50% value idea to me.

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