What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Actions have consequences, politically speaking. Just check the first set of Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 surveys.
First, it looked like the controversial health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats had turned the corner after the president’s nationally televised speech to Congress. But following a modest bounce of support, opposition to the plan has now risen to a new high, with 56% of voters against it. A similar bounce in Obama’s approval ratings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll also has vanished.
Overall, despite Presidential speeches and news conferences, town hall protests, and more, public opinion of the President’s health care plan has stayed pretty much the same since July. A modest majority opposes the plan and those who are Strongly Opposed greatly outnumber those who Strongly Favor the effort.
Part of the president’s problem is that he has so far been unsuccessful in winning over those who already have health insurance. Instead, 53% say the plan will force them to change their coverage.
The plan faces many obstacles because it touches so many aspects of life. One of its contested provisions is coverage of abortions, and 48% believe any government-subsidized health care plan should be prohibited from covering abortion procedures. Just 13% support such coverage.
A South Carolina Republican’s outburst during Obama’s speech was prompted by another hot-button issue – health care subsidies for illegal immigrants - although some Democrats suggested his comment was due to racism. But just 12% of voters nationwide believe that most opponents of the president’s health care reform plan are racist. As for the underlying issue of immigration, 83% believe that people should have to prove their citizenship to receive government subsidized health benefits.
With feelings running high, the political climate is becoming increasingly difficult for Democrats. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid trails two potential Republican challengers seeking to unseat him as he faces reelection next year in our first Election 2010 survey in Nevada.
A similar survey in Colorado finds incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet down by nine points against his most prominent GOP challenger, former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton.
Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Paul Hodes by eight points in an early look at New Hampshire’s 2010 race for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Senator Judd Gregg.
Democrats have long considered North Carolina’s Richard Burr, who is expected to seek a second term next year, as one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents. But Burr now holds double-digit leads over three Democratic challengers in potential 2010 match-ups.
Look for more Election 2010 surveys next week in Iowa, Missouri and Ohio.
Still, an early indicator for Democrats is the governor’s race in Virginia this year, and that race has gotten a lot closer. Now, it’s effectively a toss-up between Republican Robert F. McDonnell and Democrat R. Creigh Deeds.
What is shaping up as one of next year’s premier gubernatorial races is actually the GOP Primary contest between incumbent Rick Perry and retiring U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas. Hutchison has now inched ahead of Perry by two points after trailing by 10 in mid-July.
Far less dramatic at this point in the governor’s race in New Hampshire, where incumbent Democrat John Lynch’s closest competitor in 2010 is the man who so far isn't even interested in the race. Lynch trounces his other two potential Republican opponents.
Indicative of the current political climate is how quickly Democrats abandoned the community organizing group ACORN after recent news stories detailing questionable behavior in several cities. Both the House and Senate voted overwhelmingly this week to end federal funding of the group which describes itself as “the nation’s largest grassroots community organization of low- and moderate-income people.” Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters agree that Congress should end all federal funding of the group. Only 15% now have even a somewhat favorable opinion of ACORN, while 67% have an unfavorable view.
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