>> Daniel, I assume that you are talking the stock market
>> environment when you say the environment decays around it.
Well, Paul, the stock market is part of it, but not specifically what I was talking about. I was speaking in more general terms, or I thought I was. Frankly the stock market is but a mirror of a host of global influences. Zoom out to the global economy or zoom in to the firm's sector and related sectors and even the influeneces of a single formidable competitor; don't work from a single static view.
>> I think that the recent volatility in DELL and other tech stocks
>> has been caused primarily by young portfolio managers who
>> are acting impulsivley. They bid stocks up to unreasonable
>> levels and then dump them on the basis of who knows what.
I know that you are not the only investor who thinks that way, but I am sorry, this is too pat for me and just to simple an answer. It conjures the image of some sort of bumbling conspiracy. "Its those ADS-addled young spanks ruining the party for us real investors". Sorry, its a little more complicated than that from where I stand.
>> What fundamental has changed that causes a rational investor
>> to conclude that Dell is worth 25% less than a few weeks ago?
>> I simply don't see a change in the fundamentals or the larger
>> environment.
People are concerned that there may indeed be some future impact of the price war (the one that is *wink* not happening as we speak in the box industry), that markets may possibly be softer than originally projected, that the future, though bright, may not live up to the extraordinary numbers of the recent past (they set the bar quite high for themselves, unfortunately), the perception (read this again - the perception) that DELL may be overvalued or at the very least in need of a deep rest until it proves that it is indeed composed of some alien combination of helium and teflon. Those are just my knee jerk responses and primarily relate to investor/trader fears based on recent events. There is a lot of available information, and mis-information, that fans those flames.
What current fundamental aspect about DELL is evidence that it should warrant a continued vertical trajectory, especially in light of all of the present trepidation in the market?
DM |
