(i) i figure that the dollar will dissolve against gold by 80+% from this point on, certainly within 10 years, after or at which time dollar will then experience a definitive crisis, per my watch n brief premise stipulating crisis within 7-15 years
(ii) i reckon the inflection of crisis may well be coincidental to prc:usd gdp parity on basis of unadjusted forex rate
(iii) i am certain that the dollar's eventual but certain demise will have everything to do with internal conditions of usd space and almost nothing at all to do with anything external
in fact i figure external developments will do much to delay the dollar's demise as usa imperial garrisons are withdrawn from just about everywhere due to budget crunch, allowing a savings
(iv) by returning to natural size, i figure, should the usa wise up and the rest of world dumb down, usa may end up keeping 10-12% of global gdp pie, and should the opposite be the case, then 5-6%
all of the above figuring would be in line with past fiat money inflation experiments, imo.
as to usa manufacturing competitiveness, competing against europe will prove inconsequential and winning such competition will not be material, as currencies grind against currencies and all slipping against gold; iow, usd implosion (as opposed to leisurely meandering in gentle declining slope) against asian currencies is not at all necessarily a certainty.
taking the industrial mold (all sizes and complexities) as an example, that which is made of specialty steel from japan or germany, adding cnc machining hours, all sheltered under a usual airconditioned roof and operated by the much trained and very experienced staff and designed by other highly educated and very experienced staff working usa-made workstations, the average joe6pack mold would cost between 300% to 3,000% more than that which is made by wang3cups.
given that the mold is a fundamental 'thing' along the industrial value-add, and one of some complexity, and nothing to do with sweat shop labour, it is difficult to see exchange rate as a reset to balance out the energy potential.
on top of which we add the complexities and success factors of financing, savings, domestic demand, concentration of suppliers, consumption intensity, etc etc, and the simultaneous equations having anything other than a "zero state reset" solution becomes obviously and direly doubtful.
bottom line: fiat money inflation is evil. power corrupts, and absolute power, when enabled and enhanced by fiat money inflation on global scale, tends toward absolute evil.
recommendation: getgold, it is a wager on the rise of the new sovereign and a bet on the decline of the empire, for sure, and very simple to keep track of, with almost 24/7 market feedback, and the market supposedly knows just about all
the only major outstanding issue of high uncertainty is the duration of the darkest interregnum, the elapse between what was and what shall be |
