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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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From: mopgcw9/24/2009 11:44:05 AM
2 Recommendations   of 25960
 
CS: Cymer Inc. (CYMI) NEUTRAL S. Kumar
CP: US$ 37.82 TP: US$ 38 CAP: US$ 1.1b
Summary post Non Deal Road show

• Maintain positive bias. We hosted investor meetings with CYMI management in New York. We maintain our positive bias on
the stock - CYMI has a strong market position, is leveraged to the lithography cycle and should benefit from two major product
cycles TCZ and EUV. We expect ASML to book ~40 immersion units in 2H09, which suggests our 32 unit shipment forecast
for CYMI in 2H09 could prove conservative.

• Growing confidence on cycle. CYMI recently pre-announced Q3 revenues - we think higher spares revenues and TSM were
key reasons for the upside. Also Samsung and Toshiba have become more aggressive with capacity orders in the last few
weeks. We are currently modeling 111 unit shipments for CYMI in CY10 (2 TCZ, 4 EUV included) - while the unit estimate is
up 147% y/y much higher than our capex estimates, note that other than Samsung, TSM and Intel, no other customer likely
took more than 3 laser units from CYMI in CY09 - i.e. CY09 capex may not be a precise proxy for actual equipment intake in
CY09.

• EUV/TCZ product cycles. CYMI is several years ahead of competition in EUV - and there is not enough R&D dollars to fund
multiple supplier-eco systems for EUV - we think this aspect is strengthening CYMI's relationship with ASML. On TCZ,
company plans to revenue first system in 1H10, and expects TCZ will be in its sweet spot in CY11.

• Valuation. We maintain our PT of $38 which represents 15x CY11 EPS estimate adding back $4 in cash per share
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