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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (8607)	10/30/1997 4:03:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Hello Joan In responce to your quest for new imput...let me offer this opinion. . I believe the markets are going to go sideways from here and trade within a narrow band of 200-400 pts for 2 or 3 months. The balance between the sellers and buyers is still firmly in the buyers camp, but is being egualized by the Sellers, who are the active traders. There will be "jump indications" from your TA Systems, but for the most part the markets will be quiet.....It's going to be boring.... neither will win much or lose much and volitility will be dull. . The magnificant spring back at 10:00am on Tuesday was successful....it took the "fear" out of the market and confirmed what the buyers expect...manipulated or not...? The problems in Japan are serious and Hong Kong has exasperated there financial condition with very very serious consiquences for their peoples, governments and their financial systems. It will also produce consequential problems for the rest of the world. This is already evidient in Brazil. . However, Japan's central bank and Hong Kong's will not be allowed to dump treasuries with impunity. Those amounts held independently are small and not troublesome. If selling occurs at all....it will be almost imperceptable to anyone except the most astute...like your self. . However, the markets will eventually ware down over the 'weight of the evidence' coming to the peoples attention. The Wall Street Journals articles 30 Oct are the first to be seen by the general public that clearly states the nature of the long term effects of "Bubbles burst" and Deflation. . The next period of potential problems...and in my opinion....equally as important to the US and the worlds markets is the early entrance of the European Communities new currency in 6 months. It will be a stronge contender for worlds flow of currencies. They are very quiet on how they are going to anchor this new denomination. But with the German central bank involved it will be -- Sound and this will be a clear destablizing event in the domination of the US$. The complications are significant for both the US$ and Bonds. . It may well be the underlying "perfect set-up" for the next market drop, by providing the fears of "monetary Stability" as most recently exposed. It is especially threatening to the US currencies ability to remain the worlds safe haven and the US$ will be challenged. This is a fundamental change that will alter 50 years and a generations perception of US dominance. Remember on Monday the only currency that increased substantially in value was the Swiss Franc and to some extent the Mark. The Swiss are not all there yet...but they will be. Please keep this in mind as you go forward. Learn more and directly research this next event. Also, please everyone, "overlook" my spelling. Chip

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