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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 36.38-1.3%3:59 PM EST

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To: Paul Engel who wrote (38411)10/30/1997 5:00:00 PM
From: Barry Grossman  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
Paul,

I really like the way you think. It's really a terrific service you perform for many investors who otherwise might not have as good an understanding of what the facts are and what is a reasonable conjecture about Intel's financial transition in 1998-99.

I have no argument with your numbers except that I think that the 10% growth from 20 to 22 million/quarter might be a bit conservative taking into account:

biz.yahoo.com

"The SIA said its forecast is compiled by the top market researchers at 70 semiconductor companies.

In 1997, the SIA said microprocessor sales grew 27.6 percent and were the best-selling product, surpassing DRAM (dynamic random access memory) chips in total sales. Intel Corp (INTC) is the world's biggest maker of microprocessors...

Total sales of microprocessors rose to $23.6 billion in 1997, up from $18.5 billion in 1996. In 1998, processors will jump 20.4 percent to total sales of $28.4 billion, then growth rates slow slightly, with 19.6 percent growth in 1999 to $34 billion and 19.3 percent growth in 2000 to $40.6 billion. "

Other than that, I would like to start to discuss the financial implications of BIG SILICON overtaking Big Iron.

What would be your conjecture on the minimum number of Merced chips that will be linked together in an Intel based mainframe? What might be the ASP of the initial Merced's in 1999? What is the price advantage that will be available to mainframe buyers when these machines are become available. I don't have a clue about IBM
mainframe cost but you might be able to at least put some numbers to my many questions on this subject.

Right now I'm beginning to feel like I felt at the beginning of 1996 when INTC was bottoming out. Wasn't this just after the PPRO was introduced?

Again, thanks for your conjectures.

Barry
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