ken..."If Reid goes down, Dems will still control the Senate and Durbin will be the majority leader."....
Durbin re-election far from certain
October 8, 2001
BY STEVE NEAL SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST
freerepublic.com
He's not a sure thing. Senator Richard J. "Dick" Durbin (D-Ill.) , though leading in early polls, may be facing a difficult race for a second term in 2002.
Durbin, 56, hasn't left many footprints in his first five years in the Senate. Earlier this year, a front-page analysis in the New York Times mistook Durbin for Sen. Alan J. Dixon, a fellow Downstater, who left the Senate in 1993.
That's Durbin's problem.
Even though he has been a member of the state's congressional delegation for 19 years, Durbin is unknown to many Illinois voters. He hasn't defined himself.
Democratic strategists are worried about Durbin's relatively low approval ratings and his anemic numbers on what is known as the generic re-election question.
Three Illinois senators have been defeated for re-election since 1984. Durbin's fate is far from certain.
According to the Almanac of American Politics, which is published by the nonpartisan National Journal, more than one-third of Illinois voters are unaware of Durbin. He is rated favorably by 47 percent of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 17 percent, according to the almanac.
Durbin, who has been on opposite sides of issues ranging from abortion to trade, doesn't seem to have an ideological focus. That could be a liability and is one of the reasons that the New York Times confused him with Dixon, who also tried to be all things to all people.
According to a recent GOP-sponsored poll, Durbin is potentially vulnerable. Only 39 percent of Illinois voters said that they would "definitely" or "probably" vote for his re-election, compared with 31 percent who favored a "new person."
Only 51 percent of strong Democrats said they favored Durbin's re-election, while 21 percent preferred a new person. Only 41 percent of independents said they favored Durbin's re-election.
The statewide poll of 800 likely voters was conducted in the late summer by the Washington, D.C., firm of Public Opinion Strategies.
When respondents were asked about their impressions of Durbin, their comments indicate why he could be in trouble.
"He seems to sit on a fence," a strong Democratic voter said. "Make up your mind, sonny. He seems like he hesitates before he says something. Say what you mean. Like the Indians say, a forked tongue. You don't know whether to go left or right, so he goes straight and says the wrong thing."
Another Democrat added: "He's a good talker. He don't get much accomplished, but he is a good talker. Good public relations man.... He can go with either side of anything and make it sound good."
A middle-age ticket-splitter said, "With all due respect, he talks out of the side of his mouth. Maybe because he's not believable. I don't buy what he says because he always appears like he wants to play both ends, and into the middle. Whether he agrees or disagrees, he goes with it. He is a true politician, and he just rubs me wrong."
"I don't know him very well, so I cannot say too much about him," said a middle-age Democratic woman.
A young Republican woman said almost the same thing: "I really don't know him.... I don't recall. It's just if I hear the name, I don't know if I like him or I don't." "I guess there haven't been any scandals with him. There hasn't been anything positive, and there hasn't been anything negative that he has done," said a young African-American woman who leans Democratic.
A young white female, who is independent, said: "I can't relate his name to anything."
An older white independent female said that Durbin is "too much Washington, D.C. He is a Washington man, and I don't have any faith in anybody in Washington, D.C., except maybe the president."
"He goes with the political wind. He's very interested in his own career. I think he's extremely partisan," said an older white Republican woman. "I really don't think he's in touch. He's certainly not in touch with his constituents, or at least he's not in touch with this constituent. I really think he's a Washington politician, period, in the most negative sense. He hogs the limelight and is only interested in furthering his political career."
Durbin, who lost his first two political races in the 1970s , has won his last seven elections. Next year could be tougher. |
