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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: AlienTech who wrote (13215)10/30/1997 5:17:00 PM
From: Judy  Read Replies (2) of 50167
 
AT, were you at your monitor today watching distribution? Distribution should continue thru tomorrow which then closes the funds fiscal year. Next week trading volume should lighten up until the funds figure out the market direction. More precisely, which direction they wish to take the market. The market is nothing more than a reflection of people's beliefs. On specific stocks, did you watch CSCO on Level 2? Can you tell if net distribution or accumulation was occurring and by whom.

Sonki, yes, my sense is that the tech uptrend will resume before spring. For the near-term the market will have a downside bias thru most of November. No single stock or sector can turn the tide. CSCO and AMAT together could possibly provide the pivot point in the tech downtrend with their forward guidance, but INTC and MSFT cannot confirm the uptrend until their new product cycle is in full gear.

I believe that a market bottom will be set in the next few weeks to be followed by a tradeable year-end rally. Thereafter, 4th Q earnings jitters will come. The revenue growth picture presented with the 4thQ results will determine whether the bear or the bull takes control of the market. Alan G said squat the other day, that earnings can grow on an non-inflationary basis. The Street knew that there were no visible signs of inflation and needs corporate forward guidance to confirm or deny.
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