Jeff, It's almost funny (and would be if so much wasn't riding on it), but I get the feeling that one of the biggest con games is now taking place. The way I currently see it: The money managerws are worried as heck. But if they can convince the "little guys" to just hold tight (while they step out the door), then everything will be just fine. Frankly, I'd feel a lot better if this thing would just sell off, get to a level that makes sense with the the real earnings outlooks, and then we can start a new ascent on a reasonable basis. I'm just very uncomfortable with the mantra being put out by the big money. Believe me, they could really care less about the little guy if it means they(the big guys) are going to lose a bunch.Obviously Greenspan thinks there is not a great deal of support for the current PE's and has said so (between the lines) on several occasions now if anyone was listening. And while I'm on the subject of Greenspan, he might be better off worring about deflation rather than inflation. If the economy is not inflated and prices come down--what do you call it??? I sure hope I'm wrong about getting a big con thrown at us here, but my BS antennae seem to be working overtime everytime I hear these guys go into the mantra mode. Well, probably tomorrow it will be Iraq that will be the excuse of the day. Then after the big money has once again taken some more of their money off the table, they'll all say, "well, we can't foretell when something like that will happen". Am I getting too cynical in my advancing age or what?
As far as AVE goes, I see it moving for now with the market as I stated before. If the market takes a dip, I think we'll see it back into the 40's real quick. And if the market takes a real hit, we may see the 30's; wouldn't that be something. I'm still on the sidelines, waiting for this thing to sort out. I'll get back in when I see some clear air. |
