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China: The People's Republic Turns 60
Stratfor Today » October 1, 2009 | 1205 GMT
STRATFOR Photo
A large banner hanging in Bejing’s Chaoyang district in August encouraging citizens to “devote one’s life to the mission”Summary
The 60th Anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing is Oct. 1. The celebration was enveloped in all-encompassing security, even surpassing that of the 2008 Olympics, which reveals a government exerting an extra effort to show its strength and unity as China faces fallout from the global recession.
Analysis
The 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China is Oct. 1.
The planned celebrations were said to rival those of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, but the mood leading up to the anniversary was anything but celebratory. The physical security presence in Beijing was omnipresent and Internet security was as tight as ever. And there were numerous other security precautions that affected Beijing residents, from impromptu curfews to restricted travel and the closing of hotels and restaurants in the vicinity of the parade.
These measures lacked celebration and seemed to underscore the fact that China emphasized security over all other concerns to ensure the flawless execution of the parade. There were rumors of a possible attack from Xinjiang separatists, but none of the security precautions indicated a specific threat, let alone target. The Uighurs — a Muslim minority concentrated in western China — may be restive but they have not yet proven to be organized on a national level. The other “separatists” — the Tibetans — lack weapons or skills to use them. Only Falun Gong has ever demonstrated the ability to collaborate across China’s massive territory, and their presence has diminished severely since the crackdown on their movement 10 years ago.
Rumors of militant threats are nothing new in China, and although there was some speculation that they may even be manufactured by the government itself, they are so ubiquitous that the government does not have to generate such rumors — they are easily self-propagated, especially given the recent unrest in Xinjiang and the rumors of needle attacks. However, the government has also done nothing to dispel these rumors. Rumors of bomb-wielding Uighurs only help to legitimize Beijing’s uptick in security prior to National Day.
China’s biggest threat does not come from separatist movements in Xinjiang or Tibet, but from internal problems spurred by the current socio-economic situation.
The recent economic crisis has severely impacted China’s export market. The decline in global consumerism, which has shown signs of improving but will unlikely fuel the Chinese economy as it did in the past, has left many employed in China’s export sector struggling. The government has thrown massive amounts of cash at the problem in the form of loans from state banks to keep employment up during the recession, but this is only a stopgap measure. Once the money dries up, China’s structural imbalances and its reliance on the export sector will continue to plague the country that has already witnessed a notable uptick in riots and protests since the beginning of the economic crisis.
The recession has struck at the heart of China’s structural problems — an overreliance on state-directed funding, dependence on low-margin exports, and a lack of a domestic consumer market — which will take decades (at best) to change. Money pumped into infrastructure and social security programs are a start, but cannot change China’s economic landscape overnight.
In the meantime, the masses grow restless.
The current economic trials and tribulations have not only influenced the rash in protests and riots throughout the country, but have also helped to uncover China’s internal factionalism and corruption. Prior to the recession, seeds of discontent were already evident as China’s rapid development and industrialization created wealth gaps and damaged the environment. Now those seeds are sprouting, and Beijing stands divided on how to address these growing dilemmas.
Regardless of evident factionalism and growing unrest, the party remains united in a singular goal: the one-party rule of the Chinese Communist Party continues uninterrupted. The celebrations on National Day are meant to exhibit a country united, showcasing the Party’s authority — domestically as well as an emerging global power, even in troubled times; hence the security is imperative. Disruptions are not an option.
As the nationalism fomented during the holiday ebbs, China will continue to face the challenge of keeping both the party and the people united as both external and internal pressures wear down the facade.
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