maintain a strong, loyal Military? Don't be fooled--the U.S. is winding down Afghanistan. Defense stocks will suffer.
Defense Cuts On The Way
Rick Whittington, 09.24.09, 12:00 PM EDT
Don't be fooled--the U.S. is winding down Afghanistan. Defense stocks will suffer.
Conventional wisdom on Iraq and Afghanistan is dead wrong. Wall Street continues to value defense stocks either as if Obama is definitely a one-term President (and a Republican hawk is sure to replace him in 2012), thus holding the pending deep weapons system cuts to a minimum, or that the present administration is going to continue to prosecute the Afghan conflict at or near the present level of intensity, or even step it up per General McChrystal's request.
My contrary view is there is no longer any reason for U.S. forces to be engaged in Afghanistan, that we've already eliminated the terrorists who staged the Sept. 11 attacks, and sent a mighty message not to trifle with American lives in any part of the world. We already won a stellar victory in Iraq, sending quite the message. Because of that, I have counseled selling defense stocks ever since the November election.
The winding down is already well underway and will be quickly concluded without compromising what we set out to achieve. Saddam was eliminated and Iraq no longer poses a threat to its many neighbors, who just happen to occupy a most valuable piece of global real estate (with its oil riches) and whose enhanced security these past seven years has facilitated robust global growth.
Iran will remain a sticky wicket, but then I can't recall any time since Jimmy Carter shunned the Shah and the Islamic revolutionaries took our citizens hostage that it hasn't. Believe me, the Iranians get the message--attack us, or our vital interests (read: Israel), and you're toast. Didn't our secretary of State use similar language last year? |
