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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Madharry who wrote (35597)10/7/2009 9:23:39 AM
From: Paul Senior3 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 78750
 
A natural tendency to find an explanation for events.

Maybe it's modernists who seek a rational explanation for events. As if that could lead to either peace-of-mind or ability to predict events or understand or control our environment.

Some would say the Lord or the gods are responsible.

I generally view the cause as people's ignorance of statistics:

1. Confusing correlation with causation, ie. assuming a stock movement has occurred because some other event has occurred.

2. Not willing to accept randomness as an explanation for a particular event. Trying to spot a trend from one data point.

Not that I don't get caught doing this myself; I do try to be alert to it though.
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