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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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From: TH10/7/2009 11:58:44 AM
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Brief automotive update.

Last week the big heads at my company (most from Europe) joined me in Detroit for annual planning. At the end of three days of meetings the difficult question came up, and that was, "when do we stop?". Stop what? Well booking US business. That actual question is on the table, as the Dollar decline is quickly making importation of automotive unprofitable.

And that question is not just for automotive. The Dollar total that we import every year is a very, very large number. The cost of futures is becoming prohibitive. European exports to the States are in peril, and if this trend continues, it will absolutely cost American jobs too.

I'll do a broader update in the next week. There are some interesting things happening in automotive right now. Inventory builds are fast becoming a big topic. And jobs from the stimulus from Cash-for-Clunkers looks to be a fantasy to me. No one is going to ramp until they see at least a release increase trend of 20 weeks. Everyone knows that volume right now is only to park more units on lots and rebuild inventory. Rinse, repeat, wait for Clunkers V.2

GT
TH
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