Regarding current stock price has priced in the approval, I think the complexity of the story is maybe the issue here. I don't want to repeat myself but for instance the issue with SR vs. compounding is an unusual animal for people to understand. It is not your typical branded vs. generics dynamics. And it is not Lucentis vs. off label avastin in wet AMD. In these two other cases, the cost differential favors the alternatives and the payers (insurance, etc) can, in the case of generics, substantially push for the cheaper option. Or the docs can push for the cheaper option like avastin because there is no understandable diff in safety or effectiveness between the options. This is not the case for SR. The safety problem of the active ingredient can not be ignored. The effectiveness of the compounding product can not be assured. The only option is really SR as long as our current payer system is in place.
I will add one more point. Companies are getting smarter about not putting a red flag on the price of their drug prior to marketing. I believe ACOR was talking about $7 to $12K before and now has been talking $5 to $10k per year. I think they have room to price this drug. But companies have learned, maybe, not to rub it into people's faces. Also companies have figured out the game re: co-pays. It doesn't take too many geniuses to know that it is better for the company to sell to one more patient at $10k per year and pick up most/all of the co-pay vs. no sales.
One thing I failed to point out is that SR "only" has generic protection till probably mid 2018. ACOR gets 7 years for orphan exclusivity. But because it took forever to get this drug to market, ACOR will likely get the entire 5 years added back to their 2013 patent. So the idea that SR has no patent protection is also part of the issue mix. In EU, they get 10 years of exclusivity.
Sorry for another longish post. So no regular guy on the street is likely to figure all this out. The complexity is an issue for the stock price.
Even if I am correct, maybe people won't notice till much later. Maybe it is better to buy after the event. Not trying to pump the stock. Just trying to put a little back to share. Sometimes it is right to wait, sometimes not. I guess that's why it is ... ahhh.. fun???
edit: My guess is that we see the briefing papers tomorrow, Friday, because Monday is a Federal Holiday. |
