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From: Rarebird	10/12/2009 9:45:16 AM
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Transcendental Market Fragments: Gold: The gold bulls have gotten excited over the minor rally the last few weeks, but Gold has not rallied in most currencies Essentially, the price of the US Dollar has gone down, resulting in the price of Gold going up in dollars. A rally just in dollars is simply a bear market rally that's doomed to fail when the dollar bottoms and heads up. The count of 5 waves up is almost complete. Mining Stocks: Insider selling is likely the reason I have seen lower highs persist in the mining shares. These insiders know that the price of Gold is about to plunge and are getting out while the market allows them to do so. Dollar Index The Cash US Dollar Index (DXY) is following the script so far. The fifth wave down within the diagonal triangle ending pattern started on Oct. 2. DXY bounced on Thursday and Friday The rally since Thursday's low has retraced about 46% of the first down subwave. That strongly suggests that the current bounce will end soon and a third and final subwave wave (c) will carry the Dollar Index lower to complete wave v. That third subwave wave (c) would test long term support around 74.66. But, it probably won't go that low. If it did, though, it would probably be associated with some kind of panic in stocks - to the upside. Once DXY finishes this down pattern, expect a huge short-covering rally that will pressure Gold and virtually every other market except bonds. S&P 500: I'm looking for a false breakout this week, an exhaustion move which results in a key trend reversal. Resistance is likely to be found at the 1100 area of the SPX or 10,000 on the Dow Industrials. Dow Industrials: The smart money is raising prices to attract the sideline cash in order to sell shares to bagholders, who only have a deep correction or new low to look forward to from here.

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