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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 374.22

-0.2%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: carranza2 who wrote (56430)	10/14/2009 12:44:06 AM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 217919

C2, let's not get too excited about the hyperinflationary effects of a mere doubling of the number of US$. Consider Japan over the last 20 years. There hasn't been a lot of hyperinflation there. Property prices are not even twice what they were in 1989. They are a fraction of that peak. No hyperinflation there. US$ in yen have ranged from 250 to 80 and back again and again. Gold has been between $300 and $500 for the most part between 1989 and now. sharelynx.com In 1989 there were about 130 yen to the dollar, falling to 90 about 1995, then back up to 130 or so, now back to 90. forecasts.org So, as measured in gold, house prices and everything else in Japan have not gone hyperinflationary even after waiting for 20 years. After the 1990 bust, Japan had banks in trouble like the Wall Street effort of 2008. The pixelation process for new money was enthusiastic in Japan. Stimulus spending was everywhere. Still no hyperinflation or even garden variety inflation. Now the USA, UK and others have got into the pixelation process game, property prices have been reduced [though not by an order of magnitude as in Japan]. It's not clear that hyperinflation or even regular inflation needs to start. There has been a small stampede over the last month or three to sell US$. So those who bought NZ$ bid the thing up to US74c from US$50c. That's a 50% increase. Thanks for the vote of confidence. It's misplaced. Consider NZ government borrowings planned and being attempted right now, with the Minister of Money begging around the financial markets - $40 billion or so wanted which in NZ is $1000 per sheep which is quite a lot considering their market value. Consider NZ's Accident Compensation Corporation losses = biggest corporate loss ever in NZ with plenty more to come = $5 billion or so. Helen Clark's Evil-Doing coven has certainly blown the budgets. GDP growth is not part of NZ's achievements. Bludgers [government departments, contractors, welfare recipients] have been a huge growth industry but unfortunately, foreigners don't want to buy those services. Exports are not booming, other than in producing people who are voting with their feet. But those people are not "sold" to foreigners with the revenue going to the bludgers in government. They just shoot through. The US$ has been well-pounded and perhaps well enough for now. Exporters from the USA must be looking very cheap now. Made in China must be looking more expensive to newly impecunious Americans. Foreigners will be having cheap holidays. Perhaps gold will reduce in US$ though everyone seems to think it's a no-brainer that it's going to $2000 any time now. Mqurice

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