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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (122975)	10/16/2009 12:20:45 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) of 542197

I see 2010 at the national Republican level as jockeying for position for the 2012 presidential nomination. So, not only is there no leadership, much of the public stuff at that level will be about trying to make certain "the other gal/guy" doesn't get too many points. Since no one at that level right now seems likely to capture the nomination going away and certainly unlikely to do well in a general election, I suspect it will come from someone not yet prominent--a general, some governor yet to have the media lights shine their way. But, most likely, the "base" will continue to insist on ideological purity which will serve to keep the level of conflict very high and the likelihood of finding an attractive general election candidate very low. 2016 looks to be their next good chance. Well, all of this guesswork depends on a reasonable Obama performance, an economy (global) that doesn't tank into a depression, and the absence of serious scandals. As economists like to say, all of the above applies so long as we have no unknown exogenous factors.

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