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Biotech / Medical : Immunomedics (IMMU) - moderated
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To: kdd999 who wrote (7898)10/19/2009 10:43:31 PM
From: li3511  Read Replies (2) of 63327
 
> I guess there is a LOT of dumb money on wall street.
>
> Last Friday on Fast Money the guy who plays options said that there was
> huge call buying on HGSI, and he even bought some calls. He glibly said
> they have a drug in Ph3 for lupus, and it's going to be a blockbuster.
>
> Not everybody is dumb. There's a fairly sizable short interest in that stock
> too (many more than in IMMU).

Do you want to do some casino-style gambling?

On November 2, HGS announces the top-line results of the second of the Phase III trials for Benlysta, BLISS-76. If it meets endpoints, they will quickly file for approval. However...

Everyone was dead-set sure that the first of the trials, BLISS-52 would fail. When it didn't, the stock went up from about 5 to about 20. Now, everyone is dead-set sure that BLISS-76 will succeed. Well, maybe.

It strikes me that the downside from failure at this point is a LOT steeper than the upside on success. The stock price already has success baked into it. The logic is that the p value from the first trial makes failure on a retest highly improbable. What people forget is that such logic only holds if everything is the same on the retest. Here, different ethnicities are being tested, at different clinics, on different continents.

Anyone want to step up and place a bet?
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