The outlook for gold depended on how much money Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke "will print"
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Faber says gold price may reach $US6000
April 26, 2006
MARC FABER, who told investors to bail out of US stocks a week before the 1987 Black Monday crash and began recommending commodities at the end of 2001, said gold might rise tenfold in the next 10 years.
"If the Dow Jones [index] goes up three times in the next 10 years, I think gold prices will go up by a minimum 10 times to something like $US6000 an ounce," said Faber, 60, who founded Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd and manages about $US200 million ($268.3 million).
The author of the newsletter The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report said gold wasn't expensive when "you compare its price to the quantity of money that has been printed in the last 10 to 15 years in the US and the world in general".
Gold for immediate delivery rose to $US645.85 an ounce on April 20, its highest in more than 25 years, as hedge funds and other speculators bought commodities to seek greater returns than from stocks and bonds. Former George Soros partner Jim Rogers forecast last week that gold would reach $US1000 an ounce.
The outlook for gold depended on how much money Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke "will print", Mr Faber said in an interview in Tokyo on Monday.
"As you know he has pronounced speeches about asset deflation," Mr Faber said, referring to Dr Bernanke. "He's concerned about real estate and stocks going down, so in the long run for sure he'll print money."
Pension and mutual funds are pumping record amounts of cash into commodities as China's booming economy stokes demand for oil and other raw materials, leading to a three-year boom in prices. The amount of money invested in index-linked commodity funds rose last year by as much as $US30 billion to $US80 billion, according to Barclays Capital. The amount might rise by 38 per cent this year to $US110 billion, the bank said.
Gold for immediate delivery reached a record $US850 in 1980.
Energy and uranium prices would continue to rise on growing Asian demand, Mr Faber said.
"Asian oil demand will double," he said. "We don't know whether that will be in eight or 15 years but for sure it will double and I don't think supplies will be able to match that."
Mr Faber has worked in Asia for more than 30 years. He served as managing director at the Hong Kong unit of Drexel Burnham Lambert from 1978 to 1990.
He did not rule out a big correction in commodity prices.
Still, that would not mean the end of the commodity boom.
"Between December 1974 and August 1976 the price of gold declined from $US195 to $US103," he said. "Then it still went up eight times."
smh.com.au |
