well, thanks for doing the math. i was too lazy. (now i did the math for 2*(1.03)^700 and it is just $1,936,811,206.459721, so rather not close.) this was discussed in an issue of Grant's awhile back. they present an example of something worth around $2 compounding at 3 percent. i was going off memory, which proved to be faulty. now i have checked. the first mistake was 1 percent instead of 3 percent. the next mistake was saying "700 years ago" instead of "from the 7th century". they come up with $568 quadrillion when an item worth just over $2.03 in the year 650 compounds at 3 percent.
so. let me get it straight this time: from the seventh century, if all of human wealth was just $2 and compounded at 3 percent, we would have more than half a quintillion today in wealth. this compares to world GDP of, what, 50 trillion? so something like 10,000 times world GDP.
either human wealth was essentially nil in 650 A.D., or wealth growth has been much, much lower than 3 percent. i assume it is the latter. |
